The coronavirus pandemic has shown that only international collaboration can solve global-scale crises, while drawing the vital connection between the natural environment and therefore the climate change, biodiversity, and novel viruses or generally speaking, human health.
Over the past decades, developing countries have contributed far less green-house gases to the atmosphere than nations that industrialized earlier. As of 2018, India ranked seventh among top historical polluters, after the U.S., China, Russia, Germany, the U.K. and Japan.Nowadays, the country is considered as the world’s third-biggest emitter CO2/ NOx, right after China and the U.S. Also, India is home to nine of the ten most polluted cities globally, across air, water and noise pollution.
Indeed, the Asia Pacific nations’ relatively high green-house gas emissions are due to the fact that Asia has become the manufacturing engine of the world, so that's where emissions are coming from. Nevertheless, the Western nations share the responsibility as consumers.
With the U.S. President Joe Biden’s renewed commitment to the Paris Agreement, which was surely a very important decision for the future of climate action and consequently the future of the world, at the same level as China’s pledge to net zero carbon emissions by 2060, India is under pressure. If the country announces such a commitment, it would offer a huge push in the climate fight. Actually, after the U.S. officially rejoining the Paris Agreement, and with major climate commitments from Asian powerhouses (China, Japan and Korea), such an announcement from India could bring two thirds of the world on course to achieve net zero carbon emissions around the middle of the century. So the expectations are really high and the world’s third biggest emitter, has come under enormous pressure to make a net-zero pledge ahead of global climate talks in Glasgow, Scotland.
There are voices saying that the top Indian government officials close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi are debating whether to set a goal to zero out its green-house gas emissions by 2050. The experts and foreign advisers are looking for ways to meet the 2050 deadline, and ideally 2047, in order to mark the centenary of India’s independence from British rule.
Indeed, such an ambitious target would require overhauling India's coal-dependent economy.
Therefore, Indian officials want to see what the U.S. says about the Paris goals at the April 22 meeting before making any commitment. This being said, the scope of India’s commitment might depend on pledges other nations make on April 22, when U.S. President Joe Biden will host for the first time world leaders for an Earth Day summit.
Biden has given climate envoy John Kerry a mission to secure commitments from attendees and he explicitly included India while singling out the 20 countries that are the equivalent of 81% of global emissions. Accordingly, signatories of the Paris Agreement are expected to boost their commitments to slow global warming.
After that China, the biggest polluter and a rival of India, won international praise for setting a 2060 net-zero target in September 2020, once the U.S. adopts a widely anticipated net-zero goal, nine of the 10 largest economies will have made pledges to neutralize about 60% of global emissions. If India does the same, it would mean a significant increase in the fight against climate change.
Although, many experts warn that a mid-century target will be extremely difficult to achieve. Reaching net-zero emissions would require India to set even more aggressive renewable energy targets, electrify not only its transport sector but most industrial processes, and find solutions for hard-to-abate sectors like construction and agriculture.
On the positive side, there are signs that there is a growing domestic support for India to set a net-zero goal. Actually, on March 16, T.S. Singh Deo, a cabinet minister for the eastern state of Chhattisgarh, said the area’s health sector is setting a 2050 net-zero target. Also, several non-governmental institutions in India have started working-out potential ways to net-zero emissions.
But currently, the research is in an early stage and does not cover the entire economy. The country needs more information before it can credibly set such a goal.
According to the International Energy Agency’s modeling, a potential pathway for India to approach net-zero emissions is around 2065.
Navroz Dubash, a professor at the Centre for Policy Research and editor of the book ‘India in a Warming World’, claimed that for countries such as India, the most important thing is to achieve the greatest development for the fewest additional emissions. Instead of setting a distant net-zero goal, India should find out how to avoid locking in high-carbon infrastructure.
With a growing population and still-industrializing economy, a net-zero goal for India would be a much bigger lift than for most economies. However, some officials argue that India shouldn’t bow to pressure given that the country's fossil fuel use is set to rise in the coming decade. Also, India’s Power Ministry had previously delayed a drive to cap toxic emissions from power plants. This shows that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will also have to face a potential pushback from inside his government.
According to Bloomberg NEF analyst Shantanu Jaiswal, "The country may not agree to any net-zero targets by 2050 without external financial support."
Actually, the Paris accord acknowledges that rich countries should cut their emissions faster, allowing poorer countries to use fossil fuels for a bit longer to help them achieve the prosperity which the West has enjoyed for decades.
Moreover, India’s existing commitments are already relatively ambitious, like cutting emissions intensity by at least a third from 2005 levels by 2030 or nonprofit Climate Action Tracker giving India the best rating among large economies.Under the Paris climate change agreement signed in 2015, India committed to cut the green-house gas emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35% over the 2005 levels, increase non-fossil fuel power capacity to 40% from 28% in 2015, add carbon sink of 2.5-3 billion tonne CO2 per year by increasing the forest cover, all by 2030.Since then, the country country has introduced several pollution control norms and is now the fastest one in curbing pollution with the pace of pollution control being better than global average.
And regarding renewable energy, India has the largest solar capacity in the world.
The Bank of America Securities' report indicates that the progress so far suggests India could exceed Paris agreement targets and might even step-up these targets over time.It shows that between 2015 and 2030, India could drive $401 billion worth capital expenditure towards a green future, gain 106 GW in energy savings by adopting renewals, and reduce C02 by 1.1 billion tonne per year, which would exceed the 2015 Paris agreement.This aligns the country with large global economies, aiming to be carbon neutral by mid-century, such as the U.S., Japan, Britain, the EU and South Korea; plus China by 2060.
The Bank of America Securities' report also listed following major drivers for the change:
- push to cut diesel use for cars, pumps and so on;
- increase natural gas - natural gas intake at 15% from current 6% by the end of the decade ;
- expand renewable power to 450 gigawatts by 2030 - almost five times existing capacity;
- stricter emission norms for autos, coal power, back-up power;
- better energy efficiency for lights, power plants, mobility, packaging, waste management, fans, pumps, consumer durables, etc.;
- cleaning up Ganga river;
- over 110 companies driving towards net zero emission.
According to Bank of America Securities, the pollution theme will impact as many as 111 stocks with cumulative market cap of $1.3 trillion.
Lately, two leading personalities discussed on climate and infrastructure:Jin Liqun, president of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and former vice minister of finance for China during the leadership of Jiang Zemin in the late 90s, and Lord Nicholas Stern, chairman of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at London School of Economics.
Both Jin and Stern highlighted that specific national commitments on emissions are crucial to achieving large-scale, measurable progress on climate action. They also agreed that the coronavirus had emphasized the necessity of multilateralism in facing global challenges. Jin Liqun added that he hoped the pandemic had produced an enhanced sense of cooperation between nations: "We will be able to build consensus around a concerted effort to fight climate change in the decades to come."
Stern's 'The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review', which is now recognized as a landmark publication, says that the cost of acting on climate change is far, far less than the cost of inaction.
According to Stern, the 2014 bilateral U.S.-China climate change announcement between Barack Obama and Xi Jinping can be considered as a turning point in the preparation of the 2015 Paris Agreement. He also noted that Asia had become a global leader in terms of the climate challenge, by manufacturing the hardware that the world needed for decarbonization.
Regarding China President Xi Jinping’s pledge to achieve net zero emissions by 2060, Jin believes the goal was carefully chosen, and was incorporated into drafts of the country’s 14th five-year plan. He remains optimistic: "You can expect that the next five-year plan will carry even more weight in this regard."
Jin admitted that after the reforms in the 1980s, which led to a prolonged period of extremely rapid economic growth, scars were left on the environment and ecosystem. "Now it’s time to remove the heavy footprints in the environment caused by that fast growth," he said.
He is convinced that further to wanting to improve domestic prosperity and the quality of life of the Chinese people, China had a diplomatic motivation for committing the climate target, as the country wants to play an important role in the international, political and economic area, as well as showing itself as a responsible member of the international community.
According to Jin Liqun, the sustained development of Asia depends on its success in moving away from fossil fuels, "because that's the only sustainable way for Asia to continue to grow."
Jin also recommended large development banks to extend their scope beyond physical infrastructure projects to social and environmental infrastructure, such as healthcare, education and conservation. He believes this would facilitate stronger economies: "We should support healthcare as part of the campaign to fight climate change. A healthy nation is productive; a sick nation cannot be productive." MonAsia cannot agree more.
Lord Nicholas Stern as well explained that natural, human and social capital are crucial elements in understanding development and growth.
He added: "We know that China, the U.S., Europe and India disagree on some important things, but if you find an area where you can collaborate, you improve relationships across the board, and you can innovate."
Multilateralism is the way to go. And if India makes a commitment to net zero emissions similar to that of China, there will be around two thirds or more of the countries of the world targeting net zero. Wouldn't that be spectacular?
Président de l'association
